
Note to readers: A version of this post will be submitted to our Board of Supervisors as a formal letter, as well as to a local news outlet. We'll see if it even makes a ripple.
Even those wary of AI agree that it can do clever work. I use it regularly
with students to shape their writing ethically and to design assignments. But
can the industry make enough money to continue its progress? A great deal
hinges on that answer, including development on the western border of the Richmond
Metro Area.
A proposal before Goochland’s Board of Supervisors would allow data centers,
perhaps powered by small nuclear reactors, to be built along the Route 288
corridor. Even without considering the environmental hazards, as one who
researches the industry, I’ve found economic risks of rushing off quickly to join
this AI gold-rush.
CEOs constantly make utopian claims about AI's future, but numbers cloud
those predictions. Subscriptions such as mine meant under $2.5 billion in
revenue for ChatGPT maker OpenAI in the second half of 2024, according to
sources that include The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times.
The rest came from venture capital or circular investing, such as Nvidia's and
Microsoft's massive stakes in OpenAI.
The firm estimates that building out its data centers would cost $400
billion. For such ambitious plans, companies need a lot more revenue to balance
their books. An "AI Bubble" may be inflating, as several economic
journalists have warned. Writing for The Atlantic, Rogé Karma notes that
“In the first half of this year, business spending on
AI added more to GDP growth than all consumer spending combined.” A crash in the AI
sector would deal devastating blows to the economy, with local effects when
superfluous data centers go dark.
For his part, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman focuses on big ideas that seem
straight from science fiction. He writes that humans and computers will become
one form of life soon, which he calls “The Merge.” I'll quote from his blog,
"unless we destroy ourselves first, superhuman AI is going to happen,
genetic enhancement is going to happen, and brain-machine interfaces are going
to happen." Not all of us would call such things progress, but history
shows us that technological breakthroughs take time and a lot of money. Quiet
supersonic airliners and nuclear fusion plants have inched closer to reality,
over decades.
It well may take that long for AI data centers to not increase ratepayers’
electric bills. We’ve seen that already from existing data centers in the
Commonwealth. Before we consign so much open land to data centers locally,
let’s consider what experts in the field who are not CEOs or marketers have to
say.
A robotics researcher, hired away from my university by Google, insisted to
me that human-level thinking cannot be engineered; at best we might imperfectly
simulate it, at great expense via a "brute force" computing method run
in huge data centers. I recently noted in class how we might improve that,
given faster computing using fewer chips, following what’s called Moore's Law.
A student challenged me, claiming that silicon-based chips have not enjoyed the
leaps in power and speed we expected annually up through the early 2000s.
Several academic papers I looked up support that idea. Without new types of
microprocessors or exotic quantum computing, we are stuck with today’s data
centers. Concurrently, our AI models remain far from perfect. Alex Reisner of The
Atlantic, as well as academic researchers, found developers fudging
benchmark tests that measure AI's smarts. They give the software test questions
in advance, a tactic beloved by college students for many years. When AI is faces
novel tasks, however, it scores far lower. Rogé Karma’s investigative work
bears this out; productivity of coders dropped by 20% when working with AI, as
they spent more time correcting mistakes.
Other Bubbles have popped with local consequences. A few years ago, I
addressed The Board of Supervisors, whose agenda that night included motions to
increase suburban-style growth in the east end of the county. I opposed this
for many reasons, but one stood out: we had made zoning changes before based on
empty promises, when we developed an office park called West Creek for an
anchor client, Motorola. Their semiconductor plant would, in theory, have provided
many hundreds of jobs.
My late father-in-law, Edward Nuckols, had addressed the Supervisors in the
90s. He was a respected master mechanic and businessman with deep ties to the
community; his auto shop, unlike Motorola, had been in operation here for
decades. Ed warned that big companies change their minds.
So it came to pass: Motorola backed out of their promises and Goochland was
left with over $100 million in debt. One Supervisor reminded me that the
county had little choice but to search for other revenue streams to repay that
sum. While a fair counterargument, it does not seem we have learned much. Even
if Altman and other CEOs are right, such men have no ties to any locality
save the posthuman utopias they dream of inhabiting. $100 million of debt means
nothing to them.
I’d love to see cheaper, more sustainable AI as a partner in our work. Today's
models such as ChatGPT 5, Anthropic Claude, as well as lesser known but
powerful tools such as NotebookLM or Research Rabbit, greatly help my students.
We engineer prompts to find credible sources that are not hallucinated, we
check human-created work for accuracy and voice, we write scripts for podcasts
that AI converts to broadcast-quality audio. Plagiarism, the bugaboo of
academic AI, concerns me less than does helping my students gain skills for workplaces
slowly adopting AI.
My classes emphasize critical thinking when working with AI. So I'll ask
Goochland's Board of Supervisors to do some critical thinking and research not
influenced by the hype of Silicon Valley's billionaires. Altman claims
intelligence will soon be "too cheap to meter." Older folks will
recall that fable about electric bills, one made in the 1950s and 60s.
Otherwise, we could be left with more debt and large, empty buildings crumbling
in the rain along 288.
Creative Commons Image: Bioethics.com